What do our tables and maps show? Our top line estimates suggest while the total number of jobs potentially disrupted by an all-out trade war remains modest, the count encompasses a diverse and shrewdly chosen “hit list” of hallmark American industries—one that appears well-calculated to scare both red and blue America.
Altogether, we count some 2.1 million jobs in the 40 industries that produce products now slated for possible tariffs, and see a wide variation in the type and number of exposed jobs in those industries. Here’s a look at the industry list:
Scan the list and it ranges from sizable industrial enterprises such as plastics manufacturing, aircraft manufacturing, and automotive/light/truck/motor home production (300,000, 230,000, and 200,000 direct jobs respectively, in 2016); to farm-sector mainstays like corn (18,000 jobs), soybeans (5,000 positions), and hog production and slaughter (147,000 workers); and into specialty industries such as fruit and nut production (187,000 workers), wineries (60,000 workers), and distilleries (12,000 positions).
Overall, the list suggests that Chinese trade bureaucrats have as good, or perhaps even better, of a feel for the diverse and culturally significant key elements that comprise the U.S. production base than their U.S. counterparts. High-tech and low-tech, industrial and agricultural, commodity and specialty production are all represented and put into play.
Map the potentially affected jobs, meanwhile, and it’s very clear that the Chinese have done their homework about the geography of both the U.S. production system and its divided politics.
To confirm this, we mapped the county-by-county location of employment in the 40 potentially affected industries (as a share of the local total); here are the results:
